Can South Sudan Be Stabilised Ahead of the Upcoming Elections?

JUBA — As South Sudan hurtles toward its first post-independence elections, scheduled for December 2026, analysts are questioning whether the country can be stabilised in time to allow for a credible and peaceful electoral process.

The elections, originally set for 2023, have been postponed multiple times due to the slow implementation of the 2018 peace agreement. With the security situation deteriorating rapidly and the political landscape fragmented, many observers doubt that the conditions for free and fair elections can be met.

The electoral timeline is extremely ambitious given the current situation, said an analyst from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Africa. You need security, political consensus, and a functional electoral commission — none of which exist at the moment.

Key prerequisites for the elections remain unfulfilled: the unification of security forces has stalled, the permanent constitution has not been drafted, and voter registration has yet to begin in many areas. The National Elections Commission has acknowledged the challenges but insists the vote will go ahead as scheduled.

Regional bodies including the African Union and IGAD have urged South Sudan’s leaders to prioritize creating conditions for peaceful elections, warning that a flawed or violent electoral process could plunge the country back into full-scale civil war.

The choice is clear, said a senior diplomat based in Juba. Either the parties commit to genuine reform and create the conditions for credible elections, or the country risks descending into chaos. There is no middle ground.

Civilians across South Sudan have expressed mixed feelings about the elections. Many are eager to exercise their democratic rights for the first time since independence in 2011, but others fear that elections held under current conditions could trigger further violence.