The Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has been toppled by the military in a bloodless coup, bringing his leadership and influence, especially at the regional bloc into question.
The ouster of Dr Hamdok— the current Chairperson of IGAD is likely to undermine the ongoing regional efforts to end instability and economic improvement.
This is based on the fact that IGAD is a regional bloc that aims to consolidate peace and security, economic and integration in the East and Horn of Africa region.
The takeover of Sudan by Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan could raise questions of whether or not there is a need to succeed Dr Hamdok as the IGAD chair to carry forward the pending tasks; including mediation and economic integration.
Other pending tasks include South Sudan’s peace process and its cross-border trade with Sudan, the Kenya –Somalia border conflict as well as Ethiopia-Egypt conflict over the Nile Waters which are key to achieving economic integration.
According to some analysts, the takeover spells a lot of doom to South Sudan more than any other signatory of IGAD.
“Hamdok is the sitting chair of IGAD so it is the first time in the continent that a sitting chair of a regional economic body like IGAD is under detention,” said Edmund Yakani, the Executive Director of Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation (CEPO) as he condemned the coup.
He added: “The peace talks between Sudan and South Sudan is under jeopardy because there is no longer a legitimate government in Sudan; it is a military coup government.”
Big blow to Juba
Mr Yakani pointed out that the coup will have a direct implication on the agreement between Sudan and South Sudan especially on the security arrangement, one of the critical outstanding critical tasks of the revitalised peace agreement.
“Now there is transition in South Sudan through the peace in agreement; we are going to graduate the unified forces and the unified forces have to be confirmed by the leadership of IGAD. So it means that in November if we are to graduate the unified forces, then we need the grantor clearance from IGAD which is Sudan.”
“Unfortunately, now the IGAD chair is under arrest, so how are you going to graduate these forces because who is going to represent IGAD as a chair? And who is going to represent Sudan as a grantor to endorse the graduation that it has met the provisions of the revitalised peace agreement?” Yakani asked.
Besides reciprocating peace brokers, both countries have yet to broker an agreement with each other’s dissident groups. While South Sudan is yet to convince Abdallaziz El-Hilu of SPLM-N) and Abdal Wahid Mohamed Nur of SLM to reach an agreement with Khartoum, efforts by Sudan to bring Juba together with the Kit-Gwang faction were underway.
All these efforts were likely to be affected, according to Mr Yakani.
In a statement on Monday, the regional and international entities, including African Union Commission (AUC), IGAD Secretariat, and the United States rejected the military takeover, calling for an immediate consultation to resolve the dispute between civilians and the military.
“The Executive Secretary strongly condemns any attempts to undermine the transitional government and urges all parties to exercise utmost restraining. Sudan is the current chair and important founding member of IGAD and the organisation stands ready to support the transitional government of Sudan and the Sudanese people consolidate peace and democratic gains,” IGAD Secretariat said in a statement.
The AU through the Commission Chair Moussa Faki said: “The Chairperson calls for the immediate resumption of consultations between the civilians and military within the framework of the Political Declaration and the Constitutional Decree. The Chairperson reaffirms that dialogue and consensus is the only relevant path to save the country and its democratic transition.”
Achievements
Under Dr Hamdok’s leadership, Sudan’s economy was entered the recovery phase following its removal from the list of terrorist-supporting countries and economic sanctions by the United States in 2020.
However, following ongoing development, the U.S Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman expressed dismay on Sudan’s ongoing political development saying Washington was deeply alarmed over the reports of the military takeover which would place the U.S assistance at risk.
Last month, Sudan survived a failed coup plot, ushering in bitter relations between parties to a power-sharing deal – the military and civilians- after deposing ex-President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.