There should be a blueprint to address the ‘winner-takes-it all’ in the democratic governance of South Sudan which is yet to be ushered in. This would encompass measures like having rotational presidency or any type of all-inclusive governance structure.

A February 10, 2021 study by the International Crisis Group avers that the youngest nation will need a clear-cut plan to avert the scenario where some communities will feel like outsiders in power matrix hence triggering conflicts.

Titled ‘Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan’, the study examines the country’s path from independence into the period of civil war and transitional government; and ends with recommendations for a democracy.

Winner-take all snag

ICG states: ‘‘The winner-take-all governance system fuels constant tensions among elites, already sore from decades of bloody infighting, leaving the country vulnerable to relapse into war. Many community, rebel and religious leaders, government officials and women’s groups across the country express not only deep frustration with the national leadership but also the belief that the solution lies in greater autonomy and representation for South Sudan’s diverse communities and regions.’’

Knowing how fragile African politics has been, the ICG argued in the report that certain political figures may feel frustrated after the elections and stir tensions among their communities.

‘‘Violence could occur out of frustration on the part of politicians and their followers who feel that the result has locked them out of state power and a share of its resources. In this scenario, aggrieved parties would perceive their rivals as having used the vote to impose a final victory in the war.’’

It is a culture that the group argued is rampant in the South Sudanese politics, and could plunge the country into even more costly chaos during a democracy.

ICG said the country’s political situation, which is driven by ethnicity, needs lots of structuring to avert chaos. This would involve educating the people who would obliviously fall in the trap of politicians who use tribes to seek for power.

To cure the problem of dangerous division, the group proposed a system that goes beyond a unity government currently led by President Salva Kiir. Apart from advocating for the devolution of state resources, the group opined that sharing power could be a stopgap remedy.

According to the ICG, the method can work but is susceptible to infiltration by self-seeking political figures. 

‘‘Shared and devolved power might be a credible path out of crisis, albeit one strewn with obstacles – notably, elites who often conduct themselves more as war entrepreneurs than statesmen,’’ it argued.

Rotational method tossed

On recommending the masterstroke for the problem, the ICG stated: ‘’ One way to reduce the pernicious effects of exclusionary politics is to build a system where power can be shared more equitably at the centre.

South Sudan could consider also formally slot prominent positions in the national government for electoral runners-up. This arrangement would ameliorate the winner-take-all nature of elections, thus both lessening the risks of conflict in the run-up to the vote.’’

‘’Other measures could include creating powerful committees shared among ruling and opposition parties to oversee critical government functions, such as finance and military affairs.’’

But this may not address other excesses in governance such as authoritarian tendencies that has been rampant in Tanzania despite rotating leadership between Christians and Muslims, the ICG opines.

South Sudan is gearing towards a democratic leadership after the expiry of the term of the transitional government as stipulated in the 2018 peace accord.