Political analyst dissects the developments within the South Sudan Opposition Alliance, the impact of the changes and the future outlook for new agriculture minister, Hon. Hussein Abdelbagi

By Chuol Chanyong 

Political analyst and journalist Atem Simon says the divisions within the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) are historic, stemming from the differences within the South Sudan Patriotic Movement (SSPM) between Castillo Garang and Hussein Abdelbagi.

According to the analyst, the cracks started emerging since the appointment of Hussein Abdelbagi as the Vice President and chairman of SSPM, even though Castillo Garang was the chairman of the party at the time.

“However, the appointment of Hussein as Vice President of the Republic was made with internal bargains,” Atem says.

According to Atem, Hon. Abdelbagi performance in the Presidency and as Vice President was below par, as he failed to project a regional outlook during his tenure, focusing on the Bahr el Ghazal region. This, the analyst says, weakened his influence within the SSOA and his relationship with the SPLM.

As for the President of the Republic, he says, he selects the leaders based on the faction that represents the majority, and this window could have been open from Hon. Josephine Lagu’s faction.

“While Abdelbagi was also a victim of political representations in the country, the SPLM appointed Dr. Bol Mel, Vice President for Economic Cluster, who comes from the Bahr el -Ghazal region. This contributed to the weighting of Josephine Lagu as she is from the Equatoria region, and this takes into account the fair representation of the country’s regions in power,” Atem said.

“With the ongoing developments, as for (Hon.) Abdelbagi, it is more likely that he will resign or join the SPLM to keep the ministerial position. And the danger is not limited to Hussein Abdelbagi only, but also to the national parliamentarians and state parliamentarians in his faction. These positions will return to the bigger faction, led by (Hon.) Josephine Lagu.”

“They have two options to preserve power and their political gains. Either to return to Castillo group, or join SPLM to keep their positions in the National Legislative Assembly, Council of states or state legislature.”

On Tuesday, February 25, SSOA faction allied to Hon. Abdelbagi released a statement explaining their stand following the appointment of Hon. Josephine Lagu as the Vice President for Service Delivery Cluster, a position previously occupied by Hon. Abdelbagi.

“SSOA Leadership is determined by the Charter and Regulations of the Alliance which stipulates that the term of the chairperson, Deputy Chairperson and other officials is six (6) months none renewable. Hon. Josephine Joseph Lago overstayed for over five (5) years, which contradicts the alliance’s charter and regulations,” the statement said.

“While SSOA is now divided, we urge for reconciliation and unity of the alliance to overcome the current polarization of SSOA by returning to the Charter and the Regulations. We remain committed to supporting H.E President Salva Kiir, in his efforts to implement the revitalized peace agreement and bring everlasting peace, security and prosperity to the country,” the statement added.

In a decree announced on state television SSBC on Monday, January 10, 2025 evening, President Salva Kiir removed Hon. Hussein Abdelbaggi from the Service Cluster and Dr James Wani Igga from the Economic Cluster, and appointed Dr Benjamin Bol Mel as the Vice-President and Chair of the Economic Cluster as well as Hon. Josephine Lagu to replace Hon. Abdelbagi.

“While SSOA is now divided, we urge for reconciliation and unity of the alliance to overcome the current polarization of SSOA by returning to the Charter and the Regulations,” a statement from SSOA-Abdelbagi allied faction, said.