South Sudan’s bid to have an election in 2022 in accordance with the dictates of 2018 peace deal may never materialise going by the recent hint by the Juba administration.
A cock-fight pitting the government and self-exiled critic Dr. Peter Biar hit a notch higher as the former penned a statement to tell of Dr Biar over his call for an election.
Dr. Biar took to the U.S Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing to urge the US to force South Sudan to go into an election come next year.
‘‘The United States, working together with the African Union, the United Nations, and others must demand that Kiir holds election by March 2022 since our people can no longer endure his awful rule,’’ he stated in his presentation on March 10.
Nhial fires back
But on Monday, March 22, Minister of Presidential Affairs Nhial Deng Nhial penned a rebuttal telling off the activist that his calls for elections were unjustifiable owing to the pending groundwork that RTGoNU must complete.
“The call for early elections in 2022 is again without justification. It must be borne in mind that the actual inauguration of the (R-TGONU) following conclusion of the Agreement in September, 2018 took some time,” Nhial said in a statement.
“Hence the time lost must be recouped so that there is adequate time to complete all the tasks of the transition before elections are held.”
Nhial then cited the lack of a permanent constitution which ought to be the guidebook for the polls.
“Dr Ajak himself would acknowledge the absolute necessity of first producing a permanent constitution and conducting a population census as indispensible prerequisites to holding any credible polls.
“And since these two processes…require time, there is no plausible rationale to insist on rushing elections. All critical transitional tasks on which genuinely free and fair elections would be predicated must be accomplished before the polls, even if it means adjusting electoral time-table to accommodate these tasks.’’
Reality dawns
Though Nhial did not outrightly state that the country would not have an election, there are circumstances indicating that the country may miss another stab to vote after violence led to the postponement of the one for 2015.
Chapter 1.20.5 of the R-ARCSS stipulates that ‘sixty days prior to the end of the Transitional Period, the National Elections Commission (NEC) shall organise elections in accordance with the provisions of the permanent constitution adopted pursuant to the agreement.’
According to the 2018 peace deal arrangement, the country had a deadline of May 2019 to graduate the necessary unified forces, and November 2019 for President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Dr Riek Machar to form the transitional government. All these never happened before the stipulated deadlines.
While the RTGoNU was formed in February 2020, the graduation of the necessary unified forces to date remains a pipeline dream. The making of a permanent constitution—which could aid the voting process— is not even near a work in progress.
Beside these, the peace deal postulates that the term of transitional government is three years. But its February 2020 late formation could mean that its term may end in February 2023. That makes December 2022 the fall back month to have an election pursuant to Chapter 1.1.5, which calls for an election two months before the government exits.
Another lingering challenge is a possible resistance from Dr Machar-led faction, SPLM-IO, which came out last week to call for a timely election but only upon the unification of the army.
“The SPLM/SPLA (IO) won’t and can’t go for elections with one-sided police and national security forces in the country,” SPLM-IO member Duk Majokdit was quoted by Sudans Post saying.
He added: “We need to have the Unified Forces and return our people to the country to enable them participate in the voting process to choose their next leader.
“The ITGONU should demonstrate political will for expeditious implementation of all the provisions of the revitalized peace agreement before elections are conducted in 2022.”
Should SPLM-IO take a hard-line position, the voting exercise may remain a far-fetched call; given the recent statement by the Minister of Defence and Veteran Affairs Angelina Teny that there are no resources to graduate the unified forces.
Fragile atmosphere
Apart from the mounting quest for an election, and its uncertainty, there comes another concern that both the government and civil rights agree on.
Nhial said the country is still volatile and rushing into an election with no structures and violence mitigation would be a recipe for anarchy.
“Premature elections cannot reflect the true will of the electorate and would consequently amount to an act of practical disenfranchisement, a travesty of political justice and recipe for disaster,’’ he stated.
The International Crisis Group echoes these fears in an analysis of South Sudan political environment.
It stated: “Ethnic tensions are sky-high after years of bloodletting, and given how tortuous political processes tend to be in South Sudan, it is likely that the run-up to elections will be littered with disagreements that will slow down preparations and require constant unsticking.
“Holding elections if logistics have not been adequately prepared, or if broader tensions linked to the elections themselves are still rife, could be risky.’’
The ICG further adds that holdout groups—who state tries no reach— must be integrated into the arrangement before contemplating a peaceful election in the outskirts of Juba.
“South Sudanese, regional leaders and other diplomatic partners of Juba should focus on bolstering political inclusion before the vote, by fulfilling the peace deal’s terms and bringing in Cirillo’s group, to further enable a secure environment for the vote to take place, including in Equatoria.”